Last week at the AFLA Conference, Tyson Jominy of J.D. Power took the stage with a mix of humour, deep industry knowledge, and a wealth of real time data. His presentation wasn’t just another market overview, it was candid, insightful journey through the shifting terrain of the automotive industry in the USA, especially for those navigating fleet operations.
Tyson began by distinguishing J.D. Power’s data analytics from traditional market research. “We get our data directly from dealers, every single day,” he explained. This immediacy allows for a sharper lens on trends, from pricing strategies to inventory shifts.
One of the most striking revelations was the dramatic drop in dealer profitability. In 2022, dealers were earning 8% margins on new vehicles. Today, that figure has plummeted to just 1%, despite rising transaction prices. Inventory is growing, incentives are climbing, and the once booming retail channel is now facing pressure.
Fleet sales, meanwhile, have stabilised to around 3 million units annually. While they rebounded quickly post COVID, they’ve since plateaued. Automakers, Jominy noted, are now prioritising retail over fleet, driven by profitability and strategic focus.
Tariffs have added billions in costs to automakers, but due to global production asymmetries, these costs aren’t being passed on to consumers. Instead, OEMs are absorbing the hit and an unsustainable trend that’s already impacting bottom lines.
EVs were another hot topic. With federal tax credits set to expire and incentives averaging US$17,000 per unit, Tyson noted that up to 25% of EV sales could be at risk. Yet he remains bullish about long term, citing infrastructure improvements and evolving consumer preferences.
The session closed with a clear message: the automotive industry is changing fast, and fleet managers must stay agile, informed, and ready to adapt. Tyson’s data-driven insights offered not just a snapshot of today’s market but a roadmap for tomorrow.
