Rising fuel prices alone are unlikely to trigger a large-scale shift from petrol and diesel vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs), according to new research from Edith Cowan University.
The study examined fuel consumption patterns, refuelling behaviour, and EV adoption intentions among Australian motorists, while also analysing vehicle registration data between the first quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2025.
Researchers found that fuel use and refuelling habits were not reliable indicators of whether motorists intended to purchase an electric vehicle, suggesting the transition to EVs is influenced by a broader set of economic, behavioural, and policy factors.
Refuelling habits not linked to EV intentions
The research included a survey of more than 400 owners of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, with around half indicating they would consider switching to an EV and 44 per cent saying they would not.
Despite differences in purchasing intentions, researchers found no significant variation in how frequently the two groups visited fuel stations.
“The findings show that how often people visit a petrol station is not a reliable predictor of whether they intend to purchase an electric vehicle,” said Dr Ahdieh Sadat Khatavakhotan, researcher at Edith Cowan University’s School of Business and Law.
“Refuelling routines appear to be habitual behaviours rather than factors that directly influence adoption decisions.”
The study also found that hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles accounted for less than 20 per cent of new vehicle sales throughout the study period, highlighting the continued dominance of conventional vehicles in the Australian market.
“Australia remains at a relatively early stage of its vehicle electrification journey,” said Dr Khatavakhotan.
“Despite recent increases in EV sales, ICEVs still account for around 80 to 82% of new vehicle registrations. Understanding how Australians interact with the existing fuel system is critical if we want to better understand what drives or hinders the transition to electric mobility.”
Cost concerns may play a bigger role
While fuel consumption itself was not linked to EV purchasing intentions, the study found that motorists who were more sensitive to fuel price fluctuations and discount incentives were generally more willing to consider an electric vehicle.
Researchers suggested concerns about future energy costs and price volatility may have a greater influence on consumer decision-making than current fuel usage patterns.
“This suggests consumers are responding less to the amount of fuel they use and more to concerns about future energy costs and price volatility,” said Dr Khatavakhotan.
“The decision to adopt an EV is shaped by a complex combination of behavioural, economic and policy factors.”
Multiple barriers remain
The researchers concluded that EV purchasing decisions are influenced by a range of factors beyond fuel costs, including vehicle affordability, charging infrastructure and government policy settings.
“Higher petrol consumption does not necessarily make motorists more willing to switch to an electric vehicle,” said Dr Navid Hashemi Taba, researcher at Edith Cowan University’s School of Engineering.
“Instead, decisions are influenced by a broader mix of behavioural and economic considerations.”
The study identified vehicle purchase costs and access to charging infrastructure as continuing barriers to EV uptake, while noting that incentives and supportive government policies could play an important role in accelerating adoption.
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