Sales of electric vehicles across Australia are forecast to climb sharply over the remainder of the decade, with annual registrations tipped to exceed 640,000 by 2030, according to the latest market outlook from BloombergNEF (BNEF).
The projection suggests EV uptake in Australia could accelerate rapidly from current levels, driven by increasing model availability and regulation aimed at reducing vehicle emissions.
EV sales growth already underway
In 2025 EV sales, including both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), reached approximately 158,000 units, up significantly from around 114,000 in 2024. BEVs accounted for roughly two-thirds of total EV sales, with PHEV registrations rising strongly year-on-year.
BloombergNEF forecasts that PHEV sales will peak in 2026 at just over 78,000 units, after which EV sales overall are expected to grow by more than 100,000 vehicles annually. Under this scenario, annual EV registrations could exceed half a million by 2029 and reach around 640,961 by 2030.
Policy and product mix supporting growth
Analysts say Australia’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), which came into effect in mid-2025, has already influenced buying patterns by encouraging manufacturers to offer more efficient EVs ahead of tighter emissions targets.
The growing variety of electric SUV models priced below $40,000 is expected to further support adoption, as smaller, more affordable vehicles appeal to a broader group of buyers.
Market observers also note the shifting competitive landscape among manufacturers. Sales data show Chinese brands such as BYD are closing the gap on traditional leaders like Tesla, with models such as the BYD Sealion emerging as some of Australia’s most popular EVs.
Challenges and uncertainties ahead
Despite strong forecasts, analysts caution that the transition will not be uniform across all electrified vehicle types.
It is still unclear how plug-in hybrids and traditional hybrid electric vehicles will be treated under efficiency standards and how this might influence buyer demand relative to full BEVs.
Faster growth will also depend on continued expansion of charging infrastructure, competitive pricing, and consumer confidence in EV range and resale prospects all of which have shaped adoption patterns globally.
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