Malaysian banks published their predictions of the country’s total volume industry for 2025. Reports vary from 750,000 to 760,000 units. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) predicts that the country’s TIV will be at 780,000 units.
MAA’S PREDICTIONS
The MAA’s prediction of 780,000 units in 2025, a 4.5 per cent difference from 2024’s actual TIV of over 800,000 units. This figure is considered a “normalised” amount for the country, which has seen higher figures over the years.
According to MAA President Mohd Shamor Mohd Zain, the rationale behind this prediction is attributed to providing a “soft landing” for the industry to expect. The prediction was made in reference to several local factors, such as; 5.5 per cent GDP growth for Malaysia, a boost in minimum wage to MYR 1,700, an unemployment rate of 3.2 per cent, and more.
Additionally, Malaysia’s fuel subsidies are set to be removed in the middle of 2025, which may heavily impact vehicle sales. The government is hoping that the rationalisation of RON95, a widely used fuel, will encourage citizens to opt for electric vehicles (EV) over combustion vehicles.
Lastly, the MAA also associates a lower prediction with global economic factors such as the trade war between the US and China.
BANK PREDICTIONS
CIMB Securities initially predicted a lower TIV at 755,00 units. The bank has then adjusted this prediction to 790,000 units. The bank factored in strong domestic car sales from local companies such as Proton and Perodua. According to CIMB, the increase in minimum wage and government salaries will encourage vehicle sales for 2025.
Meanwhile, Kenanga Research also sees a slight decline, albeit at a higher figure of 805,000 units, close to 2024’s results. Kenang Research was able to almost accurately predict 2024’s TIV, projecting a total of 800,000 units sold or registered. Similarly, RHB Investment Bank and Maybank Investment Bank predict 730,000 units and 790,000 units respectively.
Maybank Investment Bank, in particular, foresees a growth in electric vehicle (EV) and hybrid adoption by 3 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. Adoption of low-emission vehicles may be largely helped by tax break specifically for completely built up (CBU) EVs. This tax break will expire this December 31, 2025 and Maybank expects buyers to take advantage of it by then.
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